Backtest Robustness & Strategy Validation
Framework for sample separation, parameter stability, execution assumptions and systematic strategy validation.
Read research →Research classification: AECQS figures shown on this site are historical backtest and simulated research outputs unless explicitly identified otherwise. They are not audited live fund performance, investor returns, or a guarantee of future results. Nothing on this page is an offer to sell or solicitation to buy a security or investment product.
Research Lifecycle
A hypothesis is not a strategy until it survives challenge.
01
Hypothesis RegistryState the proposed market behavior, expected mechanism, required data and conditions that would invalidate the idea.02
Deterministic ImplementationTranslate the idea into explicit rules for entries, exits, filters, position logic and assumptions.03
Historical EvaluationMeasure trade behavior, drawdown, distribution, costs and sensitivity across the available historical environment.04
Stress & RobustnessChallenge the result through parameter neighborhoods, subperiods, adverse cost assumptions and market-state segmentation.05
Portfolio EvaluationAssess overlap, competing signals, concentration, exposure and incremental portfolio contribution.06
Research DecisionClassify as exploratory, accepted, restricted or retired based on the current body of evidence.07
MonitoringTrack whether the assumptions and behavior supporting acceptance continue to hold as the system evolves.Validation Framework
What AECQS should challenge before promotion.
Sample Separation
Use in-sample work for development and preserve distinct out-of-sample or forward-style evaluation where the research design allows it.
Parameter Sensitivity
Prefer stable neighborhoods over isolated parameter peaks. A result dependent on one narrow setting deserves greater skepticism.
Subperiod Stability
Examine whether performance is concentrated in a narrow date window or persists across materially different periods.
Regime Segmentation
Measure how behavior changes across volatility, trend, structure, time-of-day and participation conditions.
Cost & Slippage Stress
Test whether the thesis remains viable after realistic fees, slippage, sizing and execution assumptions are applied.
Failure Analysis
Study losing clusters and failure modes to distinguish a weak hypothesis from a potentially repairable implementation.
Research Controls
Guardrails against accidental curve fitting.
One change at a time
Where practical, isolate modifications so observed improvement can be attributed to a specific change.
Neighboring parameters
Look for structural stability rather than celebrating a single optimum.
Preserve failed tests
Negative results are part of the research record and reduce repeated rediscovery of rejected ideas.
Investigate before retirement
A weak strategy can be examined for identifiable failure modes; improvement still must survive validation.
Portfolio contribution
Evaluate a strategy by how it interacts with other accepted components, not just in isolation.
Research ≠ live
Backtests and simulated checkpoints remain separately classified from any actual executed record.
Experiment Record
Minimum record for a reproducible test.
ID
Research IDUnique experiment or strategy-variant identifier.H
HypothesisWhat behavior is being tested and why.D
Dataset / MarketInstrument, bar structure, period and preprocessing.R
RulesEntry, exit, filter, sizing and risk logic.E
Execution AssumptionsFees, slippage, contract sizing and fill assumptions.V
Validation TestsSubperiod, parameter, regime and stress results.G
Governance DecisionExploratory, accepted, restricted or retired.AEC WIRE · Research Library
Research notes across AEC's core disciplines.
Systematic Futures Research
Frameworks for rules-based futures research, historical testing, execution assumptions, risk measurement and evidence-based evaluation.
Real Estate Underwriting
A structured approach to acquisition price, property condition, operating economics, capital requirements, financing, downside analysis and exit assumptions.
Private Markets Due Diligence
Research considerations spanning business models, industries, financial characteristics, management, transaction terms, risk and strategic fit.
AEC Research Methodology
AEC's broader framework for traceable evidence, documented assumptions, reproducibility, risk analysis and clear separation of simulated research from live records.
Current Checkpoint
AECQS final 10-entry research configuration.
The final 10-entry configuration reports +$31,648,982.32 in raw combined historical backtest/simulated net P&L across 53,317 historical trades spanning NQ, ES and YM. NQ: +$24,986,733.43 · PF 1.752 · WR 56.13% · 20,736 trades · max DD -$229,889.94. ES: +$4,673,845.44 · PF 1.292 · WR 50.49% · 13,875 trades · max DD -$120,141.61. YM: +$1,988,403.45 · PF 1.121 · WR 45.47% · 18,706 trades · max DD -$381,241.54. No combined portfolio profit factor or maximum drawdown is inferred from these market-level summaries.
Deep Research
Topical Research & Analysis
Extended AEC research across systematic markets, real estate and private equity.
Futures Risk, Drawdown & Portfolio Construction
Research on drawdown, exposure, strategy interaction, sizing, execution and portfolio-level risk.
Read research →Commercial Real Estate Acquisition Underwriting
Framework for property economics, capital requirements, financing, diligence and exit analysis.
Read research →Real Estate Downside & Sensitivity Analysis
Analysis of occupancy, expenses, capital expenditures, financing stress and exit sensitivity.
Read research →Private Equity Investment Evaluation
Framework for business quality, financial characteristics, management, governance and transaction terms.
Read research →Private Company Due Diligence
Financial and operational diligence across revenue quality, cash flow, management, verification and risk.
Read research →